Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-05 0.341575 0.387043 0.436385 0.493924 0.559204 0.630995 0.715977
2025-10-12 0.275118 0.335498 0.406010 0.494497 0.602691 0.730828 0.894356
2025-10-19 0.229125 0.298432 0.384870 0.500754 0.652342 0.844317 1.106609
2025-10-26 0.196695 0.272191 0.372230 0.514786 0.713286 0.980782 1.370194
2025-11-02 0.161328 0.236023 0.340667 0.498410 0.731100 1.063218 1.576009
2025-11-09 0.131481 0.202497 0.307241 0.473578 0.732439 1.122179 1.757868
2025-11-16 0.111563 0.180260 0.286570 0.463834 0.753898 1.213084 2.001729
2025-11-23 0.095133 0.160739 0.266921 0.452230 0.770045 1.297390 2.248131
2025-11-30 0.085739 0.151130 0.261556 0.462798 0.823713 1.450002 2.632643
2025-12-07 0.073501 0.134744 0.242324 0.446431 0.828032 1.518442 2.879796
2025-12-14 0.064582 0.122883 0.229194 0.438759 0.846381 1.613789 3.190749
2025-12-21 0.057040 0.112421 0.217048 0.430915 0.862837 1.707329 3.512301
2025-12-28 0.052823 0.107953 0.215975 0.445206 0.926487 1.905014 4.083466
2026-01-04 0.047514 0.100524 0.208075 0.444634 0.960132 2.048302 4.567621
2026-01-11 0.043394 0.094941 0.203115 0.449470 1.006086 2.224746 5.155999
2026-01-18 0.040368 0.091242 0.201567 0.461472 1.069760 2.449816 5.895417
2026-01-25 0.035594 0.082949 0.188857 0.446431 1.069596 2.531656 6.312844
2026-02-01 0.030938 0.074232 0.173950 0.423970 1.048371 2.561197 6.608154
2026-02-08 0.027769 0.068560 0.165264 0.415081 1.058748 2.668351 7.119934
2026-02-15 0.024891 0.063172 0.156482 0.404591 1.063423 2.762123 7.614078
2026-02-22 0.023425 0.061104 0.155528 0.413936 1.121089 3.000992 8.546682
2026-03-01 0.020896 0.055923 0.146004 0.399263 1.112153 3.062431 8.992803
2026-03-08 0.019019 0.052194 0.139713 0.392372 1.123582 3.181244 9.627946